all eyes on Ohio where Republican Troy Ball derson is battling Democrat Danny
O'Connor in a special election for Ohio's 12th congressional district polls
show a tight race in a traditionally Republican district going into
tomorrow's heated contest President Trump who campaigned for Balder since
Saturday night won that district by double digits Democrats are looking at
the race as a referendum for the midterms is it really welcome everyone I
am trish regan in for neil cavuto on this Monday and this is your world
Kristin Fisher is in Columbus Ohio where the fight is on and we're going to her
now Phyllis and Kristen hey Trish well this is a tight race the latest polling
has them just one point apart well within the margin of error and the fact
that this is such a tight race is a very big deal in and of itself because the
last time a Democrat won this district was almost four decades ago now
President Trump he won it back in 2016 by about 11 points that's why he came
here on Saturday to encourage his supporters that a vote for Ball derson
is a vote for his agenda I'm counting on all of you again I need your volunteer
hours your enthusiasm and most importantly I need your vote
August 7th so I can go to Congress
and represent you and fight along side this good man this great man President
Trump to make America great again a vote for Troy's opponent is a vote for
open borders which equals massive crime like they don't care about it they don't
care about the crime they don't care about your military and they don't care
about your vets now Troy bald ursins opponent is Democrat Danny O'Connor he's
just 31 years old he's the county's recorder he's not very well-known he
doesn't have a ton of political experience and yet based on the latest
polls he could easily win this thing by appealing to the kinds of Republicans
that have been turned off by President Trump and his policies especially
suburban white women and in fact the state's Republican governor the state's
Republican Governor John Kasich has expressed concern about that very thing
potentially happening you know Trish if O'Connor does indeed win tomorrow it
would be an epic upset and it would make Republicans very nervous heading into
the midterms Trish yeah I imagine would thank you so
much Kristen Fisher well the president is turning things around and he is
predicting a red wave at a rally in Ohio what we have the greatest economy of the
history of our country we have things that have never happened look if the
Democrats get in they're gonna raise your taxes you could have crime all over
the place you gotta have people pouring across the border so why would that be a
blue wave I think it could be a red wave I tell you what
I think it should be what does my next guest think GOP pollster Lee Carter here
on set with me good to see you great to be here well the polls told us that
Donald Trump had no shot at winning the presidency they did he did win so how
are you thinking about a lot of these and you are a pollster yeah how are you
thinking about some of this data now well I look at this a little bit like
reading the tea leaves and I said because there's a lot that you have to
look into this can't just be about the polling numbers themselves you've got a
look at what's underneath that right now there within the margin of error which
is super shocking right now because this district is two to one registered
Republicans to Democrats so the fact that this is neck-and-neck is absolutely
shocking to anyone that's looking at this is that because a lot of
Republicans don't like Trump or is because a lot of Republicans are
embarrassed to say when they get called up who are you voting for
that that they might appear that they don't like or that they do like Trump I
think we saw the same phenomenon in the general election where there are people
who are ashamed to admit that they support the president and there's a lot
of reasons why part of it is the media part of it is you know when you think
about how many people are really avid supporters of the president it's 28% who
are saying it out loud that means 72% are not saying it out loud and about
half of Americans are saying I'll get this whole thing to begin with so when
you're asked the question a lot of people say you know what I'm not so sure
I don't I don't like this whole thing I don't like his tweets I don't like his
temperament and then you get in the voting booth when you sit there and go
you know what I like my paycheck I like my 401k right now I like the direction
in the markets I like the policies so I might vote that
way now midterms are a totally different thing that's asking if you're gonna vote
in a midterm isn't the same as people get motivated to go out in a
presidential election if you're gonna go vote in a presidential you're gonna go
primary it's like asking me and asking anybody in a survey are you gonna work
out tomorrow the answer is well of course I am until you wake up in the
morning and realize you have a million other things to do so the only thing
we're going to go out and vote are those who are very very energized those who
very energized are either very angry or very excited so I think you know going
into this is there a chance that the Democrats win looking at the polls yes
is it likely no does this mean that this is going to be a reflection of what's
gonna happen the midterm absolutely not and that's because anything can happen
between now and the midterm and we have seen it's week by week day
by day the way people feel about a can is completely changing and each one of
these candidates each one of these districts is different you can't look at
Pennsylvania and Alabama and say that's what's gonna happen here now because
that's what happened there what is the biggest issue in Ohio right now is it
the economy it's absolutely an economy and Trump is winning on the economy that
is one area where he across the board gets support and by the way a lot of
Americans still support his trade policy despite the fact that there's a lot of
controversy around it two-thirds of Americans thinks that he's fighting for
the American people and that's also something that's really important to the
people in Ohio so if Republicans win this one in a landslide and I'm just you
know if that were to happen what would that tell you again about polling data
and the sort of shame if you would that some Republicans feel about their
president well what it would tell me about pulling data is that you have to
do polls in a lot of different ways you can't just look at the numbers you have
to look at what's underneath the numbers you have to look at the why people are
behaving that way so you would ask for example how are you feeling about the
economy right now yeah you have to ask people a lot of different questions I
want to have qualitative conversations where you just get the feel I mean
there's such a difference in being in a room with a trump supporter then asking
them a polling question you get that enthusiasm and that energy so you just
don't get when you were in 2016 you talk to Hillary supporters versus Trump
supporters the difference in the volume and their energy when you're in person
was so different you knew that there was something special that was happening and
you don't necessarily get that when you look at a survey data especially when
it's neck-and-neck could you see a red wave I don't necessarily see a red wave
I think that would be a shocking thing I don't think it's gonna be a pure blue
wave like everybody said I think the big thing that people need to take away
right now and you're looking at this it's neck-and-neck is nobody can take a
victory lap until the day after election day because anything everything could
happen and both sides Republicans and Democrats have to run totally different
campaigns than they ever have before and different candidate I think this is
really gonna be about anti-establishment more than it is Republican or Democrat I
think that's the sentiment in America right now that's what I've got socialist
candidates who are winning and that's why I've got business people are winning
rather than we've got a lot of incumbents who are losing and to me it's
less about party and more about who you think is going to go out there and fight
for you in a way that hasn't happened but fascinating times all right Lee
Carter thank you so much thank you president Trump may not
today but that's not stopping him from speaking out on the Russia probe John
Roberts at the White House with more on this hey John
Trish good afternoon to you know the president keeps on system that he thinks
that the molar investigation is a witch-hunt he wants it to go away but he
seems to be obsessed with tweeting about it in a way that keeps it in the
headlines the president yesterday raising a lot of eyebrows with this
tweet saying quote fake news reporting a complete fabrication that I am concerned
about the meeting my wonderful son Donald at in Trump Tower this was a
meeting to get information on an opponent totally legal and done all the
time in politics and it went nowhere I did not know about a lot being made
though in some circles that the president is now acknowledging to a
greater degree than ever that the initial explanations of that
meeting were incomplete at best untrue at the worst Adam Schiff the
ranking member of the House Intelligence Committee twittering quote the Russians
offer damaging info on your opponent your campaign accepted and the Russians
delivered though there's no evidence to suggest they delivered anything you then
misled the country about the purpose of the Trump Tower meeting when it became
public now you say you didn't know in advance none of this is normal or
credible there's nothing much new though about what the president said a year ago
he said much the same thing at a press conference with the French president
Emmanuel macron listen here I think from a practical standpoint most people would
have taken that meeting it's called opposition research or even research
into your opponent in the case of Don he listened
guess they talked about as I see it they talked about adoption and some things
adoption wasn't even a part of the campaign but nothing happened from the
meetings now the only difference since that press conference is the report that
Michael Cohen says that the president knew about that meeting in advance he
insists he did not know that it was scheduled as he said in the tweet the
other big question will the president sit for an interview with Robert mola
the special counsel last week Muller declined the president's attorneys
proposal to ask only about Russia the election and possible collusion saying
he also wants to ask questions that go to the issue of obstruction of
this will there be a sit-down interview listen to Jay Sekulow one of the
presidents attorneys we are moving as expeditiously as possible to make the
determination to make our recommendation to the president the president has been
clear that he wants to interview I will tell you his legal team is concerned
we're concerned on a number of reasons in fact his legal team at this point is
still a know about it sources tell Fox News that the legal team will not be
responding today to Muller's letter of last week but they could be responding
as early as tomorrow we'll keep you apprised of any and all developments
here from the White House Tricia my goodness the plot thickens all right
thanks so much John Roberts what is the potential legal fallout from all of this
former federal prosecutor done once he joins me right now with more on that hey
done good see what kind of complexity does this new tweet add to the situation
at hand it's really to discussion it's honestly political dialogue and argument
and then legal argument and the reason I say that trick is that legally in a
courtroom first of all one witness really can't testify about what somebody
else knows okay so here in the political discussion we're bandying about Michael
Cote is prepared to say that the president knew that's verboten it
doesn't matter does it let's let's be clear because you know the last time I
checked I'm allowed to you know sit down and talk to anyone I want regardless of
where they're from making a great point which is that okay even when you get
past my legal niceties it doesn't necessarily matter because the meeting
in Trump Tower has been grossly overblown in terms of any kind of
criminal law context okay and and and again the president says I didn't know
about it right in the tweet at the end and the point is if he tweets on August
5th quote it was about an offer of information that tells you nothing in a
legal setting as to when he even found that out certain so is it the president
in this case that's in trouble or perhaps Don junior that's in trouble I
don't think either one of them's in trouble based on what we have in front
of us right now because Don junior testified as I understand it that he did
not recall one way the other whether he had discussed the meeting with his
father and the father has denied knowing about
the meeting Michael Cohen says something to the contrary but as all the pundits
and experts say by the way to correct me if I'm wrong but as I recall Don Jr was
really making the point that this was a meeting that was strictly about Russian
adoption and nothing else well what happened and you're right
Trish is that if you look at the shift tweet I have serious problems with that
because he says an offer was made of negative information and it was
delivered wrong no it wasn't okay what happened was in my opinion breaking this
down Sherlock Holmes style okay this was dangled as though it might
be some opposition research negative information and then when the meeting
actually took place that had nothing to do with that okay okay so if you're a
judge looking at all of this right now you're back at square one just sort of
saying okay somebody had a meeting nothing actually came out of that
meeting that made any material difference in terms of you know
basically the Trump campaign I hate to use the word colluding because it
doesn't mean much but conspiring is judge Knapp would tell us conspiring
with the other side to you know basically take this steal this from
Hillary Clinton all of the experts have broken it down into two separate
discussions one is the discussion about how collusion is not in and of itself a
criminal offense that's correct and then the other part is well if there are
other aspects to this involving exchange of money things like that and there's
been zero evidence of any of that then it's a different discussion before we go
you want to talk about exchange of money do not forget that it was Hilary's team
that managed to secure the dossier which was actually paid for remember by fusion
GPS via a law firm actually paid for to dig up dirt on Donald Trump so I mean if
you're going to talk about it's a remarkable breathtaking double
standard professor Dershowitz says use the shoe on the other foot test and
you're absolutely right all right Doug good
you
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