♪ [THEME MUSIC] ♪
>> HI THERE.
I AM JIM ZIRIN.
WELCOME BACK FOR MORE
CONVERSATIONS.
IN JUNE 2018, PRESIDENT TRUMP
MET WITH NORTH KOREA'S KIM
JONG-UN IN SINGAPORE FOR ABOUT
45 MINUTES AND SIGNED A HASTILY
DRAWN PIECE OF PAPER TOUTED AS A
START TOWARD DISMANTLING NORTH
KOREA'S NUCLEAR ARSENAL.
THE LANGUAGE MIRRORS PREVIOUS
UNSUCCESSFUL AGREEMENTS BUT
IS IN PLACES EVEN MORE VAGUE.
IN HIS ENSUING PRESS CONFERENCE,
TRUMP ANNOUNCED ADDITIONAL
COMMITMENTS INCLUDING PLANS TO
CANCEL THE U.S.-SOUTH KOREA
JOINT MILITARY EXERCISES
STRANGELY CHANNELING NORTH KOREA
AND CHARACTERIZING SUCH DRILLS
AS PROVOCATIVE WARGAMES.
SINCE THEN, SINCE TRUMP AS
DECLARED THAT HE HAS NEUTRALIZED
THE NORTH'S NUKES,
THE SOBERING FACT IS THAT
NORTH KOREA MAY BE MOVING
AHEAD WITH ITS NUCLEAR
PROGRAM AT 16 HIDDEN BASES.
WITH US TO DISCUSS THESE
IMPORTANT DEVELOPMENTS IS
AMBASSADOR CHRISTOPHER HILL.
CHRIS HILL WAS A CAREER FOREIGN
SERVICE OFFICER.
HAVING SERVED PRESIDENT FROM
BOTH PARTIES AND A NUMBER OF
DIPLOMATIC POST, HE WAS UNITED
STATES AMBASSADOR TO SOUTH KOREA
IN THE SECOND BUSH
ADMINISTRATION. FROM 2005 TO
2009, HE HEADED THE U.S.
DELEGATION TO THE 6 PARTY
TALKS. CHAIRED BY CHINA,
SEEKING AN END TO THE NORTH
KOREAN NUCLEAR THREAT.
HE IS THE AUTHOR OF A DYNAMITE
MEMOIR OF HIS GLOBAL DIPLOMATIC
EXPERIENCES ENTITLED, OUTPOST, A
DIPLOMAT WORK, WHICH IS A MUST
READ.
I AM HONORED TO WELCOME
AMBASSADOR CHRISTOPHER HILL TO
THIS TABLE.
YOU ARE WONDERFUL TO COME ON.
IN 2016 BEFORE HE TOOK OFFICE,
TRUMP MET WITH PRESIDENT OBAMA.
OBAMA TOLD HIM NORTH KOREA WAS
AMERICA'S NUMBER ONE NATIONAL
SECURITY THREAT.
IS IT STILL?
>> YEAH, I THINK IT IS.
I DO NOT THINK THE THREAT IS
GOING AWAY.
CERTAINLY, IT IS A BETTER YEAR
IN 2018 THEN IT WAS IN 2017 WHEN
WE HAD THE THREAT OF NUCLEAR
WAR.
CLEARLY, THAT HAS CALMED DOWN.
FRANKLY SPEAKING, THERE HAS BEEN
NO PROGRESS TOWARDS
DENUCLEARIZATION.
THIS IS A PROBLEM THAT WILL GET
WORSE UNLESS IT GETS
A LOT BETTER.
>> THERE WAS TALK AT THE
SUMMIT BETWEEN NORTH KOREA AND
UNITED STATES WHEN PRESIDENT
TRUMP MET WITH KIM JONG-UN.
WHAT BROUGHT KIM JONG-UN
TO THE TABLE?
>> IN 2017, THE TRUMP
ADMINISTRATION DID SOME GOOD
THINGS WITH NIKKI HALEY IN NEW
YORK PRESSING HARD ON SANCTIONS.
GETTING FOR THE FIRST TIME THE
CHINESE TO GO ALONG WITH
SANCTIONS ON OIL EXPORTS TO
NORTH KOREA.
IT WAS THE FIRST TIME THEY WERE
ABLE TO DO THAT.
I THINK THE NORTH KOREANS
EXTRAPOLATED THAT TREND AND SAW
THE U.S. AND CHINA WORKING
TOGETHER ON SANCTIONS AND
DECIDED THEY BETTER TRY THEIR
OWN POLITICAL GAMBIT.
THEIR OWN DIPLOMATIC EFFORT,
WHICH THEY DID.
THEY HAVE BEEN PRETTY SUCCESSFUL
AT IT.
>> WAS TRUMP'S RHETORIC
EFFECTIVE IN TALKING ABOUT
LITTLE ROCKET MAN AND SAYING HE
IS GOING TO WIPE WITH KOREA OFF
THE FACE OF THE EARTH?
>> I WOULD SAY ANY
PROGRESS IN 2017 WAS IN SPITE OF
THAT RHETORIC, SANCTIONS, NORTH
KOREA, THEY DO NOT HAVE THE
REFINERY CAPACITY FOR WHAT THEY
NEED.
THE CHINESE HAD BEEN PROVIDING
GASOLINE TO THEM.
WHEN THE CHINESE AGREED IN NEW
YORK TO START LIMITING GASOLINE
SALES, I THINK THAT IS WHEN THE
NORTH KOREANS GOT VERY WORRIED.
IN THE MEANTIME, WE HAD ALL THIS
TALK ABOUT, OUR BUTTON IS
BIGGER THAN THEIR BUTTON.
THAT WAS NOT VERY HELPFUL
AND FRANKLY MADE A LOT OF
PEOPLE WORRIED, NAMELY THE
SOUTH KOREANS.
IT IS ONE THING TO HEAR THE
NORTH KOREANS SAYING BELLICOSE
THINGS.
IT IS ANOTHER THING TO HEAR
PEOPLE IN THE U.S. TALKING THAT
WAY.
>> NORTH KOREANS RECIPROCATED
WITH THEIR RHETORIC.
THEY CALLED TRUMP A SENILE OLD
MAN.
>> THE NORTH KOREANS
ARE WHAT THEY ARE.
THE SOUTH KOREANS ESPECIALLY
DISCOUNTED THAT TALK FROM THE
NORTH KOREANS.
WHEN YOU START HEARING THE
AMERICANS TALK ABOUT FIRE AND
FURY, THAT IS WHEN PEOPLE
STARTED GETTING VERY WORRIED.
THAT IS WHY THE SOUTH KOREANS
WERE VERY ANXIOUS TO SEE IF THEY
COULD CALM IT DOWN.
THE SOUTH KOREANS WERE WORRIED
ABOUT HOW THEIR WINTER OLYMPICS
WERE GOING TO GO.
A LOT OF EUROPEAN COUNTRIES WERE
EXPRESSING THEIR MISGIVINGS
ABOUT SENDING THEIR SKIERS AND
SKATERS.
>> WAS TRUMP WRONG TO HAVE MET
DIRECTLY WITH KIM JONG-UN?
>> AS A DIPLOMAT, I
ALWAYS THINK IT IS A GOOD IDEA
FOR PEOPLE TO TALK.
THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THERE
WAS SO LITTLE PREPARATION.
WHEN PEOPLE TRIED TO ENGAGE IN
PREPARATION, THERE WERE A COUPLE
TEAMS AND THEN CIA DIRECTOR MIKE
POMPEO GOING TO NORTH KOREA TO
TRY TO WORK OUT SOMETHING THAT
WOULD LOOK LIKE A DRAFT JOINT
COMMUNIQUE.
IT WAS PRETTY CLEAR THE
PRESIDENT WANTED TO GO IN THERE
AND WING IT.
WHEN YOU SEE TWO PRESIDENTS HAVE
A SUMMIT AND THEY PULL A RABBIT
OUT OF THE HAT, THE ANSWER IS
THAT THEY HAD PROFESSIONAL
DIPLOMATS WORKING WEEKS AND
WEEKS TO STUFF THE RABBIT DOWN
THE HAT.
IN THIS CASE, THEY DID NOT HAVE
THAT.
THE CONSEQUENCE WAS, THEY
ANNOUNCED WAS A LOT LESS THAN
WHAT MET THE EYE.
>> OUR POLICY IN APPROACHING
NORTH KOREA HAS ALWAYS BEEN TO
SEEK IRREVERSIBLE, TRUSTWORTHY
DENUCLEARIZATION.
DID WE GET ANY CLOSER TO THAT AS
A RESULT OF THE SINGAPORE
MEETING?
>> I AM SORRY TO SAY I
DO NOT THINK WE DID GET CLOSER
TO THAT.
I THINK IT IS IMPORTANT TO STAND
UP TO THE NORTH KOREANS ON THIS
AND MAKE IT CLEAR WE ARE NOT
GOING TO ALLOW THEM TO BECOME A
NUCLEAR NATION.
TO BECOME NUCLEAR, NORTH KOREA
COULD CREATE A CIRCUMSTANCE
WHERE MAYBE THE U.S. AT SOMETIME
IN THE FUTURE DOES NOT WANT TO
KEEP FORCES ON THE PENINSULA.
IF WE ARE OUT OF THE PENINSULA,
WE COULD BE SOON OUT OF JAPAN.
THE STAKES ARE HIGH IN TERMS OF
U.S. INTERESTS AND PRESENCE IN
NORTH EAST ASIA.
SO I THINK THE TRUMP
ADMINISTRATION WAS RIGHT TO BE
TOUGH ON THIS POINT, TO INSIST
THAT NORTH KOREA DENUCLEARIZE.
THE PROBLEM IS HOW THEY HAVE
GONE ABOUT IT STARTING WITH THE
PRESIDENT AND THEN TRYING TO
HAVE LOWER LEVEL MEETINGS.
FRANKLY, THE PRESIDENT AS YOU
MENTIONED EARLIER INDICATING
THAT HE WAS BUYING THEIR LINE
THAT SOMEHOW JOINT EXERCISES --
THE ONLY REGRET WE SHOULD HAVE
ABOUT OUR JOINT EXERCISES,
WE DIDN'T HAVE ONE IN 1950,
TO IMPLY THAT THE JOINT
EXERCISES ARE SOMEHOW
PROVOCATIVE AND WE SHOULD CANCEL
THEM.
I THINK THEY SENT POWERFUL WRONG
SIGNALS TO THE NORTH KOREANS.
THEY MAY HAVE BEEN INTENDED AS
CONCILIATORY, BUT THEY CAME
ACROSS AS SIGNALS OF WEAKNESS.
>> THE NORTH KOREANS
APPARENTLY HAVE STOPPED TESTING
SINCE THE SINGAPORE MEETING.
ISN'T THAT AN ITEM OF PROGRESS?
>> THEY NEED TO TEST
AT SOME TIME.
THEY DO NOT NEED TO TEST AT
OTHER TIMES.
DURING MY NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE
NORTH KOREANS THAT WENT ON FOR
ABOUT FOUR YEARS, WHEN WE WERE
TALKING TO THE NORTH KOREANS,
THEY NEVER TESTED.
THERE WAS ONE HIATUS IN THE
NEGOTIATION.
THE NORTH KOREANS WERE FURIOUS
AT US FOR HAVING IMPOUNDED A
BANK ACCOUNT OF THEIRS.
DURING THE TIME WHEN THEY
REFUSED TO GO TO THE TALKS, THEY
TESTED WHAT TURNED OUT TO BE A
NUCLEAR EXPLOSION THAT DID NOT
REALLY EXPLODE.
WHEN YOU TALK TO THEM, YOU TEND
TO GET A TEST MORATORIUM.
I THINK THE PRESIDENT WAS
PLEASED HE GOT THAT.
THAT IS NOT ENOUGH.
WHEN YOU ARE DEVELOPING SOLID
FUEL MISSILES, WHEN YOU ARE
PERFECTING A NUCLEAR WARHEAD,
YOU DO NOT NECESSARILY HAVE TO
TEST IT EVERY OTHER DAY.
YOU ARE WORKING ON R&D AND A LOT
OF OTHER THINGS.
I THINK THE PRESIDENT TRIED TO
BALLYWHO THAT AS A MAJOR
ACCOMPLISHMENT.
WHAT WE REALLY NEED IS FOR THE
YOUNG LEADER OF NORTH KOREA TO
SIGN ONTO THE IDEA THAT HE NEEDS
TO DENUCLEARIZE IN A REASONABLE
AMOUNT OF TIME.
HE HAS TALKED ABOUT
DENUCLEARIZING BUT MORE IN A
BIBLICAL SENSE.
HE HAS CERTAINLY NOT MOVED AHEAD
ON IT.
I THINK THE ADMINISTRATION HAS A
BIG PROBLEM NOW AT THE END OF
2018.
>> WHEN YOU NEGOTIATED WITH
THE NORTH KOREANS, IT WAS DURING
THE REIGN OF KIM JONG-UN'S
FATHER, KIM JONG-IL.
WHAT APPROACH DID YOU USE THAT
WAS DIFFERENT FROM WHAT
SEEMS TO BE HAPPENING NOW?
>> WHAT WE TRIED TO DO
WAS AN OLD APPROACH FROM MY
MENTOR.
I CALL HIM MY MENTOR, MY
TORMENTOR.
HE UNDERSTOOD THAT WHEN YOU'RE
TRYING TO GET A COUNTRY TO DO
SOMETHING THEY DO NOT WANT TO
DO, DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO TAKE A
LEAP OF FAITH.
TRY TO GET THEM TO MOVE
STEP-BY-STEP.
FIRST, LET'S AGREE THAT THEY
HAVE TO GET RID OF THEIR NUCLEAR
WEAPONS.
DO IT IN A TIMELY WAY.
REJOINED THE TREATY OF
NONPROLIFERATION, WHICH IS
IMPORTANT BECAUSE TO REJOIN THAT
IS TO REJOIN AS A NON-NUCLEAR
STATE.
STEP-BY-STEP, WORK ON THE ACTUAL
IMPLEMENTATION FOR THE NEXT SET
OF AGREEMENTS.
THAT HAD TO DO WITH SHUTTING
DOWN THE NUCLEAR REACTOR,
GETTING INTERNATIONAL
INSPECTORS THERE AND MAKING IT
IMPOSSIBLE IN THE SHORT RUN TO
RESTART THE NUCLEAR REACTORS.
IN THE MEANTIME, WE ARE
PROVIDING FUEL OIL THEY NEEDED
TO HEAT SOME OF THEIR BUILDINGS
AND RUN SOME OF THEIR INDUSTRIAL
PLANTS.
THAT WAS THE IDEA.
I THINK PRESIDENT TRUMP PERHAPS
DOES NOT HAVE THE PATIENCE FOR
THAT.
I THINK HE HAD THIS IDEA HE
COULD GET A PIECE OF PAPER IN
SINGAPORE AND ALL WOULD BE WELL.
HE DID GET A PIECE OF PAPER IN
SINGAPORE, BUT SYMPTOMATIC OF
THE PROBLEM, HE NAMED SECRETARY
POMPEO AS THE GUY WHO WAS GOING
TO GO FORWARD AND GET THIS DONE.
THE NORTH KOREANS SAID WE WILL
NAME A PLAYER AT SOME LATER
DATE.
THE NORTH KOREANS CAME TO
SINGAPORE WITHOUT EVEN AN IDEA
ON WHO WAS GOING TO FOLLOW UP ON
THIS.
I DO NOT THINK IT WAS WELL
PREPARED.
DIPLOMACY THAT IS NOT PREPARED
IS JUST TALK.
>> YOU FIND IT SOMEWHAT
STRANGE THAT NORTH KOREANS HAVE
SUCH DIFFICULTY GETTING FUEL
OIL?
THEY HAVE LOTS OF ENERGY FOR
NUCLEAR WEAPONS.
WHERE ARE THEY GETTING THAT
FROM?
>> IT IS QUITE REMARKABLE.
THEY LEARNED ABOUT NUCLEAR
WEAPONS EARLY ON.
THIS DOES NOT JUST START WITH
LITTLE ROCKET MAN.
THEY HAVE BEEN WORKING ON THIS
SINCE THE 1960'S.
THE SOVIET UNION GAVE THEM SOME
TECHNOLOGY.
THEY GOT SOME FROM A PAKISTANI
NUCLEAR SMUGGLER.
THEY CLEARLY DID SOME TRADES IN
TERMS OF THEIR MISSILE
TECHNOLOGY WITH OTHER COUNTRIES
TO GET VARIOUS NUCLEAR
TECHNOLOGY.
IT HAS BEEN A PRETTY SERIOUS
PROGRAM.
YOU ARE ABSOLUTELY RIGHT.
I WENT TO THE NORTH KOREA
NUCLEAR PLANT, AND TO WALK
THROUGH IT AS I DID, THEY HAD
JUST SHUT IT OFF.
I AGREED TO HAVE A LOOK AT THE
PLACE.
IT LOOKED LIKE SOME KIND OF OLD
EASTERN EUROPEAN TEXTILE MILL OR
SOMETHING.
YOU CANNOT REALLY BELIEVE THEY
WERE PRODUCING NUCLEAR MATERIAL.
BUT GOING BACK TO THE SOVIET
UNION, WE USED TO SEE A LOT
OF THINGS LIKE THAT.
YOU WOULD LAND AT AN AIRPORT AND
A HORSE AND WAGON COMES TO PICK
UP THE LUGGAGE.
THERE THEY ARE PRODUCING SOME
OF THE WORLD'S BEST MISSILES.
YOU BET, IT IS A STRANGE
ENCOUNTER WHEN YOU GO TO NORTH
KOREA AND SEE WHAT IS GOING ON
IN THAT COUNTRY.
>> TO HAVE AN EFFECTIVE
WEAPON, YOU NEED A DELIVERY
SYSTEM.
ARE YOU TROUBLED BY THIS RECENT
DEVELOPMENT, WHICH TRUMP CALLED
FAKE NEWS THAT THEY ARE
DEVELOPING MISSILES AT 16 HIDDEN
SITES?
>> THIS IS NOT FAKE NEWS.
THE PRESIDENT SHOULD KNOW BETTER
THAN TO CALL THAT FAKE NEWS.
THE U.S. GOVERNMENT THROUGH
VARIOUS MEANS HAVE KNOWN ABOUT
THESE THINGS FOR SOME TIME.
THEY SHOULD HAVE BEEN PUSHING
BACK ON THE NORTH KOREANS ON
THIS BECAUSE THE NORTH KOREANS
HAVE AGREED TO TAKE SOME STEPS
IN DENUCLEARIZATION.
ON THE ONE HAND, RANDOM ACTS OF
KINDNESS ARE A GOOD THING.
RANDOM ACTS OF DENUCLEARIZATION
DON'T REALLY MEAN A LOT
BECAUSE IT'S NOT A PRODUCT
OF NEGOTIATING, IT'S NOT A
PRODUCT OF WE'LL SEE THEIR LIST.
WE WANT YOU TO DEAL WITH THIS,
AND THEY'LL SAY NO, WE PREFER
TO DEAL WITH THAT.
THEY HAVE RANDOMLY SELECTED
THINGS.
IN THE MEANTIME, FOR EXAMPLE, IN
DECOMMISSIONING A LAUNCH SITE,
THEY'VE CREATED OTHER LAUNCH
SITES.
I THINK THESE ISSUES NEED TO BE
JOINTLY ARRIVED AT.
I GUESS THE BIGGEST PROBLEM WITH
THE WHOLE NEGOTIATING PROCESS IF
I CAN DIGNIFY IT WITH THE
CONCEPT THAT IT IS A PROCESS, IS
THAT WHERE ARE THE OTHER
COUNTRIES?
WHERE IS SOUTH KOREA FOR
EXAMPLE?
THE NORTH KOREANS SEEM TO TALK
TO THEM SEPARATELY AND SAY
DIFFERENT THINGS TO THE SOUTH
KOREANS.
WHERE ARE THE JAPANESE WHO ARE
CLOSE ALLIES OF OURS?
DO THEY REALLY WANT TO WAIT AT
THAT AIRPORT FOR THE DELEGATIONS
TO COME BACK AND THEN THEY CAN
BE BRIEFED ON WHAT IS GOING ON?
FINALLY, WHERE IS CHINA?
CHINA IS A SERIOUS PLAYER.
IF YOU THINK IT IS DIFFICULT TO
WORK WITH THEM, TRY WORKING
AGAINST THEM.
THAT SEEMS TO BE WHAT IS IN THE
OFFING NOW BETWEEN CHINA AND
THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION.
>> LET'S TALK ABOUT SOUTH KOREA.
THEY HAVE A LIBERAL PRESIDENT,
MOON.
SOUTH KOREAN POLITICS, THE
LIBERALS SEEM TO BE MORE
INTERESTED IN GETTING THE UNITED
STATES OUT OF THERE AND FENDING
FOR THEMSELVES.
THe CONSERVATIVES ARE MORE
GLOBALISTS IT SEEMS.
>> IT IS IRONIC.
THE PROGRESSIVES IF YOU WILL
TEND TO BE MORE ON A PAN-KOREAN
IDEA THAT IF ONLY THESE GREAT
POWERS HAD NOT COME TO OUR
PENINSULA, REFERRING TO THE
SOVIET ARMY AND THEN THE U.S.
AND OTHERS, BUT SOMEHOW --
BACK IN 1945 WHEN WE WERE TRYING
TO GET THE SURRENDER OF JAPANESE
TROOPS TO PREVENT A SITUATION
WHERE THE SOVIET UNION COULD
HAVE RUN THE WHOLE PENINSULA.
THE SOVIETS ENTERED THE WAR
AFTER WE HAD DROPPED THE FIRST
ATOMIC BOMB IN HIROSHIMA.
THEY WERE IN A LAND GRAB.
I THINK THE U.S. WAS RIGHT TO
TRY TO STOP THAT.
WE WERE ABLE TO STOP THE LAND
GRAB.
>> MOON IS A PROGRESSIVE.
HIS TWO CONSERVATIVE
PREDECESSORS ARE IN JAIL.
YOU SAID HE IS BUILDING
CONFIDENCE MEASURES WITH NORTH
KOREA.
IT IS MORE THAN JUST TALK.
RECENT REPORTS ARE HE IS
DISMANTLING GUARD POSTS ON THE
38TH PARALLEL AND DIGGING OUT
LANDMINES AND MAKING IT MUCH
LESS OF AN EMBATTLED AREA.
HE IS MOVING TOWARD UNIFICATION
IN A WAY THAT IS OUTPACING
DENUCLEARIZATION.
>> THERE IS NO
QUESTION THAT THE PENINSULA OF
COOPERATION IS OUTPACING
DENUCLEARIZATION.
THE SOUTH KOREAN GOVERNMENT
TRIES TO BE VERY CAREFUL TO SAY
THEY CANNOT NORMALIZE WITH NORTH
KOREA UNLESS THERE IS
DENUCLEARIZATION.
THEY TRY TO KEEP THAT WELL
TETHERED.
THE FACT IS, PEOPLE SEE
A LOT OF THESE MOVES ON
THE GROUND AND WONDER, IS
THAT WHAT THEY ARE THINKING?
THERE IS A LOT OF SUSPICIONS
THAT THE SOUTH KOREANS THINK, WE
ARE NOT GOING TO GET THEM TO
GIVE UP THE NUCLEAR WEAPONS, SO
WHY DON'T WE TRY TO GET THEM TO
NORMALIZE THAT THEY SHOULD
CONSIDER GIVING UP THEIR WEAPONS
BECAUSE THEY COULD GET MORE IF
THEY DID MORE DENUCLEARIZATION.
THAT IS KIND OF PUTTING THE CART
BEFORE THE HORSE.
IT IS CERTAINLY NOT U.S. POLICY.
IT ARGUES FOR A DEEPER DIVE WITH
THE SOUTH KOREANS.
>> SORT OF THE JUSTICE SCALIA
ANSWER.
I WILL CONSIDER IT, BUT I WILL
NOT.
>> THERE YOU GO.
THE OPPOSITION PARTY IN SOUTH
KOREA ARE THE MORE
INTERNATIONALIST PARTY.
THE LAST TWO PRESIDENTS WHO CAME
FROM THAT PARTY ARE SERVING
TWENTY-YEAR SENTENCES.
THAT IS ODD TO BE SURE.
IT IS NOT UNPRECEDENTED IN
KOREA.
THERE WAS A TIME A FEW YEARS
AGO WHERE THEY HAD THE
SAME THINGS GOING ON BUT I
KNOW A LOT OF SOUTH KOREANS
ARE KIND OF CONCERNED.
>> LET'S TALK ABOUT ANOTHER
OF THE BIG STAKEHOLDER.
THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM.
CHINA.
TRUMP SAID HE WAS GOING TO MAKE
CHINA MAKE NORTH KOREA GIVE UP
THEIR NUCLEAR WEAPONS.
YOU RIGHTLY POINTED OUT THAT IN
THE ERA OF NIKKI HALEY, THE
CHINESE IMPOSED SANCTIONS ON
NORTH KOREA BECAUSE OF
NUCLEARIZATION.
BUT THEN AFTER SINGAPORE THEY
APPEARED TO EASE SANCTIONS.
SO WHAT'S GOING ON THERE?
MIKE PENCE WENT OVER THERE AND
SAY THEY WILL IMPOSE SANCTIONS
SOMETIME DOWN THE ROAD.
WHAT IS GOING ON?
>> I THINK IT IS
IMPORTANT THAT MIKE PENCE GO
OVER THERE BECAUSE BACK IN THE
MONTH OF OCTOBER, HE GAVE A
SPEECH AT THE HUDSON INSTITUTE
AND WHICH ACCORDING TO MANY
CHINA WATCHERS IF YOU READ HIS
SPEECH, IT SHOWS THAT SOMEHOW,
WE WANT TO START A COLD WAR WITH
CHINA.
I THINK THAT SHOULD BE THE
FURTHEST THING FROM OUR MINDS.
THIS IS A RELATIONSHIP FRANKLY
SPEAKING THAT IS TOO BIG TO
FAIL.
WE HAVE SERIOUS PROBLEMS WITH
CHINA.
WE HAVE STRATEGIC MILITARY TYPE
PROBLEMS.
WE ALSO HAVE LEGENDARY ECONOMIC
PROBLEMS.
I THINK WE ARE KIND OF DOOMED TO
TALK TO THEM AND TRY TO WORK
THESE THINGS OUT.
SO FAR, WE ARE NOT DOING A VERY
GOOD JOB.
>> IMPOSING SANCTIONS ON CHINA.
>> WE ARE IMPOSING
SANCTIONS ON CHINA.
I WOULD SAY THE ONLY CONCRETE
RESULT OF THE WHOLE SINGAPORE
PROCESS WAS WE HAVE DRIVEN THE
CHINESE CLOSER TO THE NORTH
KOREANS.
YOU HAVE TO REMEMBER THAT XI
JINPING DID NOT HAVE A SINGLE
MEETING WITH HIS NORTH
KOREAN COUNTERPART
FOR SOME SEVERAL YEARS.
IN THE RUN-UP TO THE MEETING, HE
HAD THREE MEETINGS.
I THINK CHINA IS IN THE GAME.
I THINK WE NEED TO ACKNOWLEDGE
THAT.
TO TRY TO DEAL WITH CHINA
THROUGH A SERIES OF AFTER ACTION
REPORTS, I DO NOT THINK THAT IS
GOING TO WORK.
CHINA HAS AN INTEREST THERE.
I HOPE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME
EFFORT TO RESOLVE OR ADDRESS
SOME OF THESE TRADE PROBLEMS,
BUT GET ON TO THE MAIN EVENT,
WHICH IS NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN THE
KOREAN PENINSULA.
>> IS CHINA LIKELY TO HELP US
ON NORTH KOREAN NUCLEARIZATION?
IF THE U.S. WINS, CHINA LOSES.
>> I THINK THE CHINESE
DO NOT WANT NORTH KOREA TO HAVE
NUCLEAR WEAPONS.
THEY HAVE SAID SO ABOUT A
MILLION TIMES.
I THINK THE ISSUE REALLY IS HOW
DOES CHINA FEEL ABOUT U.S.
TROOPS ON THE KOREAN PENINSULA?
A FEW YEARS AGO, WE HAD A
SECRETARY OF DEFENSE WITH DONALD
RUMSFELD WHO THOUGHT IT WAS A
GOOD IDEA TO TALK ABOUT THE U.S.
TROOPS AND WHETHER THEY COULD
HAVE THIRD COUNTRY MISSIONS.
I.E., MISSIONS AGAINST CHINA.
THAT IS NOT SOMETHING THE
KOREANS WANT TO HEAR.
THEY SEE CHINA.
THEY DO NOT WANT TO CREATE SOME
KIND OF HISTORICAL PROBLEM WITH
THEIR NEIGHBOR.
YOU CAN PICK YOUR FRIENDS AND
ALLIES, BUT YOU CANNOT PICK YOUR
NEIGHBORS.
SOUTH KOREANS WERE WORRIED ABOUT
THIS BELLIGERENT TALK OUT OF
WASHINGTON.
TO THIS DAY, I THINK SOUTH
KOREANS WANT TO BE SURE THAT OUR
TROOPS ARE THERE TO DEFEND KOREA
AND NOT ADD TO PROBLEMS WITH
CHINA.
AGAIN, I THINK WE NEED TO HAVE A
DISCUSSION WITH THE CHINESE.
WE NEED TO TELL THEM THAT IF
THERE WERE A DEMISE OF
NORTH KOREA, THERE ARE MANY
CHINESE WHO WORRIED THAT IF
NORTH KOREA GOES DOWN, THIS IS A
VICTORY FOR AMERICA.
THEY WORRY WHETHER WE PUT TROOPS
UP AND HAVE LISTENING POSTS UP
THERE.
I THINK WE NEED TO MAKE SOME
ASSURANCES THAT WE WOULD NOT
TAKE ANY STRATEGIC ADVANTAGE
FROM CHINA IN THE EVENT THERE
WERE SOME KIND OF DEMISE OF
NORTH KOREA.
CHINA, THEY DO NOT LIKE THE
NORTH KOREANS.
IT IS VERY CLEAR.
AS PROBLEMATIC AS THINGS HAVE
BEEN IN CHINA RECENTLY WITH XI
JINPING DECLARING ESSENTIALLY
BEING PRESIDENT FOR LIFE AND
DOWNSTREAM EFFECT THIS HAS HAD
ON POLITICAL TENSIONS THERE,
I THINK YOU ARE HARD-PRESSED TO
FIND THE CHINESE SAYING NORTH
KOREANS ARE OUR FRIENDS.
IT DOES SPEAK TO THE FACT THAT
WE NEED TO STEP UP OUR DIALOGUE
WITH THEM AND MAKE SURE THEY
UNDERSTAND WHAT OUR OBJECTIVES
ARE AND FOR PEOPLE TO SAY,
OH, WE'VE ALREADY TOLD THEM
THAT,
I THINK ANY ADVERTISER KNOWS
THAT IF YOU HAVE NOT TOLD
SOMEONE SOMETHING 100 TIMES, YOU
HAVE NOT TOLD THEM ONCE.
EVEN IN DIPLOMACY.
LIKE SELLING SOAP, YOU ARE JUST
GOING AFTER YOUR CONSUMER.
>> IF WE ARE ENGAGED WITH THEM
IN A TRADE WAR, IS IT A GOOD
TIME TO HAVE A TRADE WAR WITH
SOMEONE WE WANT TO HELP US?
OUR PREEMINENT NATIONAL SECURITY
ISSUES.
>> IT IS NEVER A GOOD
TIME TO HAVE A TRADE WAR.
CHINA HAS BEEN RUNNING ENORMOUS
SURPLUSES WITH US FOR MANY
YEARS.
I WOULD SAY THEY ARE
UNSUSTAINABLE.
CHINA HAS BECOME A SYMBOL TO
MANY AMERICANS OF ECONOMIC
DISLOCATION.
ECONOMIC PROBLEMS, FRANKLY.
I THINK CHINA NEEDS TO
UNDERSTAND THAT RUNNING THE HUGE
SURPLUSES IS A PROBLEM.
I KNOW IT IS NOT AN ECONOMIC
PROBLEM, BUT IT IS CERTAINLY A
POLITICAL PROBLEM.
THERE NEEDS TO BE A DISCUSSION
OF THAT.
MORE IMPORTANTLY, IN MY VIEW,
CHINA'S LACK OF RESPECT FOR
INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY RIGHTS.
I THINK THE U.S. HAS MISSED AN
OPPORTUNITY IN HAVING A CLOSE
RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EUROPEANS.
SUCH THAT THE EUROPEANS PLUS THE
U.S. CAN BE APPROACHING THE
CHINESE IN A COORDINATED WAY,
BUT WE HAVE CREATED ALL KINDS OF
PROBLEMS WITH EUROPE OVER
THREATS OF A TRADE WAR.
>> WE GO BACK TO SINGAPORE
WHERE WE MAY NOT HAVE BEEN ONE
STEP AHEAD AS THE FORMER
SECRETARY OF STATE SAID, THE ONE
THING WE MUST NOT DO IN NORTH
KOREA IS MAKE CONCESSIONS WITH
THEM IN EXCHANGE FOR A PROMISE
THEY WILL GIVE US SOMETHING DOWN
THE ROAD.
>> I WILL SAY WHAT WE
TRIED TO DO DURING THE BUSH
ADMINISTRATION AND FRANKLY, EVEN
FURTHER IN THE CLINTON
ADMINISTRATION IS YOU DO
SOMETHING AND THEY DO SOMETHING.
YOU NEVER DO EVERYTHING AND
EXPECT THEM TO COME THROUGH WITH
THEIR SIDE OF THE BARGAIN.
NOR CAN YOU EXPECT THEM TO DO
EVERYTHING AND WAIT UNTIL THE
END AND COME THROUGH WITH YOUR
PART OF THE BARGAIN.
THERE HAS TO BE A SEQUENCING OF
THESE ISSUES AND A CAREFUL
CHOREOGRAPHY OF HOW YOU ARE
GOING TO DO IT.
I FRANKLY DO NOT THINK WE HAVE
BEEN ABLE TO ACCOMPLISH THAT
PRINCIPLE WITH THE NORTH
KOREANS.
THE CHINESE I THINK ARE WORRIED
ABOUT WHERE WE ARE GOING WITH
THIS.
WITH SANCTIONS, YOU ARE EITHER
TIGHTENING THEM OR LOOSENING
THEM.
IT IS PRETTY CLEAR THE CHINESE
ARE LOOSENING THEM.
>> I HAVE A QUESTION FOR YOU,
AMBASSADOR CHRISTOPHER HILL.
DO YOU THINK KIM JONG-UN PLAYED
DONALD TRUMP IN SINGAPORE?
>> I WILL LEAVE THAT
TO OTHERS.
I CAN TELL YOU THAT HE LEFT
NORTH KOREAN INTERESTS VERY MUCH
INTACT.
I DO NOT THINK HE REALLY REACHED
ANY KIND OF STRATEGIC
UNDERSTANDING WITH OUR
PRESIDENT.
OUR PRESIDENT TRIED TO SAY,
THINK OF ALL THE BEACHFRONT
CONDOS YOU CAN BUILD IN NORTH
KOREA.
I THINK THOSE KINDS OF COMMENTS
WENT WAY OVER THE HEADS OF THE
NORTH KOREANS.
THE CONCERN I HAVE IS, THE TRUMP
THE ADMINISTRATION REALLY TRIED
TO SHOW ITS CARDS AND TRIED TO
BE POSITIVE.
I THINK THE NORTH KOREANS TOOK
THEM AS GESTURES OF WEAKNESS.
>> SO NO BEACHFRONT CONDOS.
CHRIS HILL THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR
COMING BY. THIS HAS BEEN JUST
WONDERFUL.
AND THANK YOU FOR COMING BY.
TUNE IN NEXT WEEK FOR MORE
CONVERSATIONS.
I AM JIM ZIRIN.
TAKE CARE AND ALL THE BEST.
♪ [THEME MUSIC] ♪
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